Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Type I Diabetes (5-year)

 

Input
 

Age		months years
DM Duration		months years
Total Cholesterol		mg/dL mmol/L
HDL Cholesterol		mg/dL mmol/L
HbA1C DCCT		% fraction ratio
Systolic Blood Pressure		Pascal atm bar cmH2O cmHg ftH2O gm/sqcm inH2O inHg kPa mbar mmHg psi torr
Smoker	Yes (1)
	No (0)
Macroalbuminuria	Yes (1)
	No (0)
Prior CVD	Yes (1)
	No (0)

 

Results
 

Terms		logit
CVD 5 Year Risk		% fraction ratio
Decimal Precision   0 1 2 3

 

 

Notes

• This study from the Sweedish National Diabetes Register helps predict the 5-year risk of cardiovascular events in patients with Type I diabetes mellitus.
• The Cox regression model was used on the derivation sample of 3661 patients between the ages of 30 and 65. 6.1% of these patients have prior history of CVD.

 
Equations used
 

Terms = (0.08426 * (DMDuration - 28.014)) + (0.04742 * (Age - DMDuration - 16.601)) + (0.80050 * (ln(TotalCholesterol / HDLCholesterol) - 1.1470)) + (1.27275 * (ln(HbA1CDCCT) - 2.065)) + (1.20050 * (ln(SystolicBloodPressure) - 4.8598)) + (0.56688 * (Smoker - 0.1483)) + (0.41995 * (Macroalbuminuria - 0.1237)) + (1.25506 * (PriorCVD - 0.0612))

CVD5YearRisk = 100 * (1 - 0.97136e(Terms))

 

 

Calculation Details and Variables

• Equation parameters such as Smoker, have two or more discrete values that may be used in the calculation. The numbers in the parentheses, e.g. (1), represent the values that will be used.

 

References

1. Cederholm J, Eeg-Olofsson K, Eliasson B, et al., Swedish National Diabetes Register. A new model for 5-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Type 1 diabetes; from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR). Diabet Med. 2011 Oct;28(10):1213-20. doi: 10.1111/j.1464-5491.2011.03342.x. PubMed ID: 21627687